The Colombian Defense Industry Market Opportunities and Entry Strategies, Analyses and Forecasts to 2016

London, 15 February, 2012 – The defense expenditure of Colombia is smaller in comparison to other countries in the world. However, Colombian defense expenditure demonstrated faster growth than India, Saudi Arabia and the world’s largest defense spending country, the US, during the review period. Indeed, the defense expenditure of Columbia increased at a CAGR of 14.75% during the period and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 10.05% during the forecast period (reference figure below).

Between 2005 and 2010, Colombia’s defense expenditure increased at a CAGR of 14.75%. However, as a result of the global economic recession, Colombia’s defense expenditure is expected to grow at a slower CAGR of 10.05% during the forecast period. In Colombia, defense expenditure is primarily driven by external factors such as the threat and military development of Venezuela and internal factors such as the threat from rebel groups such as the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and the National Liberation Army (ELN), and the prevention of drug trafficking and related crime in the country. During the review period, the Colombian government’s military modernization program moderately increased the defense expenditure of Colombia, despite financial constraints attributed to the global economic recession.

Following the independence of Colombia and its neighbor, Venezuela, both countries began to perceive each other as a threat. During the last decade, political and diplomatic relations between the two countries has ranged between periods of mutual understanding and tension. Colombia’s close relationship with the US has also contributed to the distrust between Colombia and Venezuela.

In addition to the external threat from Venezuela, Colombia is under threat from indigenous terrorism and crime and the country has the highest homicide rate in the world. Although the security situation has improved, crime remains a significant problem in the country and the Columbian government considers crime to be one of its biggest challenges.

Colombia faces significant internal security challenges from rebel and paramilitary attacks and high levels of criminal activity. Although the Colombian government has had some success in dispelling rebel groups, Colombia has one of the highest crime rates in the world. As a result, the Colombian government and the country’s businesses have invested in security and other monitoring systems to safeguard citizens and other national assets.

As a result of these factors, the Colombian military is expected to undergo modernization during the forecast period. In 2006, the Colombian Congress approved a new law securing funds for military modernization programs.

The Colombian government channels a considerable amount of its defense expenditure towards the elimination of the drug trade. Colombia is the world’s principal producer and distributor of refined cocaine, 70% of which is exported to the US drug market. The US has contributed to fund the prevention of the drugs trade and counterinsurgency, making Colombia the largest recipient of US military aid after Israel.

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Mexican Mining Industry Forecasts to 2015

Mexico is a mineral rich country which has one of the largest concentrations of metals and minerals in Latin America and is a leading producer of silver, bismuth, lead and zinc. Leading on from growth in the review period, the Mexican mining industry is expected to continue to grow in the forecast period (2010 to 2015 ), led by demand from the power, manufacturing and infrastructure industries. Despite controversial new mining taxes, FDI in the Mexican mining industry is also expected to grow.

Demand for precious metals will drive growth in forecast period (2010 to 2015)
In the review period (2004 to 2009), the Mexican mining industry grew at a CAGR of 10.9% and was valued at nearly US$10 billion, driven by increasing prices in the precious metal industries, particularly the silver industry. In the forecast period this growth is expected to continue at a CAGR of 3.2% and see total mineral production in terms of volume increase from just over 300 million tons, to nearly 400 million tons.

With strong domestic and global demand for minerals expected into the forecast period (2010 - 2015), as the power, infrastructure and manufacturing industries in Mexico continue to expand, it is predicted that the price of minerals will continue to rise, particularly for gold and silver, as Mexico has one of the largest concentrations of silver in the world.

Demand for minerals will come from power, manufacturing and infrastructure industries
In the review period (2004 to 2009), a large number of coal fired power plants were constructed in Mexico. The Mexican Energy Ministry has indicated that in the forecast period more power plants may be constructed, and that they would use domestically produced coal as their feedstock. In 2009, coal production in Mexico stood at just over 16 million tons, compared to approximately 7 million tons in Brazil and this indicates the high level of coal production in Mexico.

In addition to this, the infrastructure industry will also contribute to growth in the Mexican mining industry, as the Mexican government plans to implement a variety of construction projects in the forecast period. The Mexican construction industry almost doubled in value during the review period and in the future this growth is expected to continue as the construction of hospitals, shopping centres, hotels and offices will require mined minerals such as cement, aluminium, iron and steel.

The automobile industry, which is the eleventh largest in the world, will also contribute to increased mineral production in Mexico, as it requires large amounts of steel, aluminium and lead. In the forecast period, car production in Mexico is expected to grow at a CAGR of 7.6% and to produce nearly 3,000 units per annum. The production of aluminium will increase significantly, as the automobile industry widely uses this for its lightweight and fuel efficient qualities.

Mining equipment industry will experience growth
As Mexico’s mining industry grows in the forecast period, so too will its mining equipment industry, as companies establish themselves in the country to take advantage of increasing mineral production levels. This growth will be further stimulated by demand from the power, manufacturing and infrastructure industries which will create increased demand for minerals and therefore the mining equipment to extract and produce them. Additionally, the increasing demand for productive, safe and efficient mining equipment, which is able to maintain high production levels at minimum risk to safety, will also aid growth in the mining equipment industry, which will meet this demand through the supply of new types of mining equipment.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) encouraged by Mexican government
In order to attract both foreign and domestic investment, the Mexican government allows 100% equity and private ownership for the exploration, development and production of minerals, and the National Mining Development Plan allows private companies to mine minerals which were previously considered exclusive to the government, such as sulphur, phosphorous, potassium, iron ore and coal. As a result, in 2009 FDI in the Mexican mining industry stood at just over US$900 million and this is expected to increase in the forecast period This rise will also be encouraged by the low labor and production costs in Mexico and the fact that approximately 60% of its mines are open pit, which allows for easier mining and production.

Tax on mining output may be counterproductive
The Mexican government’s decision to levy taxes on mining output rather than sales may damage the mining industry, as the global recession led to inventory levels in Mexico’s mines increasing, resulting in huge stockpiles of mining output to be sold once the economy recovers. If mining taxes were imposed on sales volume rather than mining output, these huge stockpiles would not be a tax burden for mining companies and only the portions that were sold would be taxed. It is thought that this decision to tax mining output may discourage new investors in the Mexican mining industry whilst the stockpiles remain.


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Australian Packaging Industry - Forecasts to 2015

The Australian packaging industry is the thirteenth largest and thirteenth fastest-growing packaging industry in the world and is expected to experience strong growth from 2011–15, driven by growth in the food and beverage, pharmaceutical and retail industries, and the high level of disposable income in Australia. The industry faces challenges from environmental regulations and the advent of ‘smart’ packaging, and some companies may be deterred from investing in the industry because of its highly consolidated nature.

Australian packaging industry to grow in forecast period (2011–15)
From 2006–10, the Australian packaging industry grew at a CAGR of nearly 4%, with paper and board packaging the largest category in 2010, holding a third of the total market share for packaging. Driven by demand from the food and beverage industry, the Australian packaging industry is expected to witness growth at a CAGR of nearly 4% from 2011–15, and to reach a total value of just over US$11 billion.

In the forecast period (2011–15), the food and beverage industry, which accounts for 60% of all packaging demand in Australia and was valued at just over US$80 billion in 2010, is expected to grow at a CAGR of approximately 6% and to continue to aid growth in the packaging industry. In addition to this, food and beverage companies are expected to focus on exporting their goods in this period, and this will bring international demand to the Australian packaging industry.

In addition to this, the aging population in Australia will also be a factor behind growth in the packaging industry in the forecast period. From 2010–50, the number of people aged 65 and over in Australia is expected to increase by 10% and this will lead to an increase in spending on pharmaceutical products. As the packaging industry supplies tubes, blister packs, cartons and bottles to the pharmaceutical industry, it will also benefit from the spending habits of an aging population.

Paper and board packaging to grow steadily
The largest packaging category, paper and board, which constitutes a third of all Australian packaging, is expected to grow to a value of just over US$4 billion from 2011–15, driven by demand from growing industries such as food and beverages, electronics, pharmaceuticals, tobacco and personal care products. Australia is the world’s fifteenth largest producer of paper and board packaging.

Outlook for packaging industry is challenging
Despite predictions flor growth from 2011–15, the Australian packaging industry will face challenges in this period as it attempts to provide customers with cost competitive and innovative packaging solutions. For example, packaging manufacturers have developed ‘smart packaging’ in which microchips are embedded in packaging in order to provide information on products and to facilitate supply chain management. Other packaging products include ‘intelligent’ solutions which display the temperature and age of food products during transit. As demand for these ‘intelligent’ packaging solutions grows, packaging companies will be forced to increase their expenditure on packaging technology.

Packaging industry in Australia highly consolidated
In the past decade the Australian packaging company has become increasingly consolidated, with just two to five companies operating in each packaging category and collectively holding around 95% of the market share. The presence of these large and dominant companies, along with the high volume and low margin nature of the packaging industry, may deter smaller companies from entering the market. The competition is intensified in the flexible and rigid plastic categories due to the presence of a large number of foreign companies.

Per capita expenditure on packaging ranks eighth in world
In 2010, per capita expenditure on packaging in Australia stood at approximately US$420, which was higher than the average of the top 20 countries. As a result, Australia has the eight highest per capita spending on packaging in the world, after countries such as the US, Switzerland and France. In the forecast period, the per capita spend on packaging in Australia is expected to further increase and this will aid growth in the packaging industry.

As Australia did not fall into recession during the review period, its retail industry grew at a CAGR of over 8% and in 2009, average disposable income stood at approximately US$10,000. This means that Australian citizens have the capacity to spend their disposable income on packaged products within many industries, including retail and food.

Packaging industry is regulated by environmental laws
From 2008–10, the Australian government implemented the National Packaging Covenant, which was a voluntary initiative to reduce waste created by packaging and office paper. A national recycling rate of 65% was established for post-consumer packaging and a 25% recycling rate for packaging products that are difficult to recycle or cannot be recycled. In addition to recycling targets, the Australian government also restricted the production of plastic bags, which are particularly bad for the environment. These reductions in packaging production and recycling schemes provide a challenge for the packaging industry in Australia, which must adapt its manufacturing lines to create environmentally friendly packaging manufacturing and meet recycling legislation targets.

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Mining in Greece to 2015

Greece has a number of rich mineral resources such as lignite, copper, bauxite, perlite, bentonite, gypsum and gold. However, the Greek mining industry declined in both volume and value in 2009 as a result of the global economic crisis. Greece also faces the problem of a high budget deficit and the EU’s second-highest external debt burden after Ireland. Recently, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the EU approved a sizeable bailout package for Greece at a low interest rate, and asked the country to adopt austerity measures to reduce its debt, which include disinvestment in public sector enterprises, including state-owned mining companies.

Coal production dominates the Greek mining industry, representing nearly two thirds the country’s total mineral production in 2009. This was followed by the non-metallic mineral category, which is composed principally of the production of cement and perlite, and the metallic mineral category which is dominated by the production of bauxite and nickel.

Economic recovery and increased investment will stimulate the Greek mining industry.
The Greek mining industry produced a total of 63.2 million tons of minerals in 2009, representing a small decline over the review period. The decline was primarily due to the fall in coal production and lack of growth in sales of metal, which adversely affected metal production in the country. During the forecast period, it is expected that the growth of the end-user markets for minerals and metals, such as the construction, power and manufacturing industries, will increase the demand for minerals and overall mining production.

Use of coal in Greek power generation is decreasing.
The country has vast reserves of lignite and, as a result, lignite-based power plants account for most domestic power generation. However, the government wants to increase the share of renewable energy in its power production and reduce its carbon emissions in accordance with EU policies. As a member of the EU, the country is obliged to produce at least 20% of its energy through renewable sources, but the country has set itself a target considerably higher than this. As a result, the consumption of coal for power generation is expected to fall in the long-term.
Improper waste management leads to public opposition in Greece.

A new mine development is facing opposition from local inhabitants and political parties, centered on a failure by mining companies in Greece to follow waste management strategies which is polluting the environment. Such opposition deters investment in new mines and increases in opposition from political parties lowers the popularity of new mining projects.

Differential treatment for foreign companies that are not part of the EU.
The government has restricted investment from non-EU companies in its mining industry. These companies are required to obtain licenses and other approvals that are not required by domestic and EU-based operators. Such regulations deter foreign investors who could otherwise be potential sources of growth for the Greek mining industry.

Demand for copper in Greece is expected to increase.
The Greek government has announced plans to move towards renewable energy to decrease the country’s dependence on fossil fuels, which are harmful to the environment. As copper is an important metal used in the generation of renewable energy, the demand for the mineral is likely to increase in the future.

Exports expected to rise as the global industry recovers.
The global mining industry has, overall, begun to recover due to an increase in the demand for, and price of, minerals. During the forecast period, with exports expected to account for more than half of the total production volume, the Greek mining industry is expected to improve its current situation. Export demand for metallic and non-metallic minerals is expected to rise in the forecast period, as the economies of Greece’s major trading partners are expected to perform better in the coming years.

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The Future of Construction in Spain to 2015 Austerity Measures and Budget Deficit to Deter Growth

Between 2000 and 2007, the Spanish economy recorded an average annual growth rate of 3.6%, which was attributed to growth in the Spanish construction industry and in particular, the growth of residential housing in the country. However, the growth in the Spanish housing segment was unsustainable, as the number of housing completions exceeded the rate of new house hold formation in the country.

London, February 08, 2012 – Within the Spanish construction industry, residential construction was the largest market with a share of 50.7% in 2010. In terms of growth, commercial construction was the fastest growing market, recording a CAGR of 1.51% during the review period. This was followed by institutional construction, with a CAGR of 0.13% (reference figure 1 below).

Between 2000 and 2007, the Spanish economy recorded an average annual growth rate of 3.6%, which was attributed to growth in the Spanish construction industry and in particular, the growth of residential housing in the country. However, the growth in the Spanish housing segment was unsustainable and the Spanish housing market and property boom burst in 2007. Following this, the onset of the global financial crisis further exacerbated the problems in Spain’s residential housing market. Consequently, the Spanish economy, entered into a recession and unemployment in Spain rose to 20%. As a result of these developments, the Spanish construction industry recorded a CARC of -2.89% during the review period.

Between 2011 and 2015, the large quantity of newly built unsold housing, office and retail space and other categories stock is expected to contribute to the moderate growth of 1.05% in the Spanish construction industry. During the forecast period, growth in the Spanish construction industry is also expected to be weakened by the Spanish government’s austerity measures, which aim to bring the budget deficit in the country within the EU 3% limit by 2013.

In 2010, residential construction accounted for 50.7% of the Spanish construction industry. However, as the housing and property market recorded a downturn, an estimated 1.4 million new houses remained unsold in the country in 2010. Consequently, ICD projects the Spanish residential construction market to achieve a CAGR of 1.97% during the forecast period.

During the review period, the increase in the rail category was attributed to the increased focus on the rail sector as part of the Strategic Infrastructures and Transport Plan (PEIT) 2005 to 2020, unveiled by the Spanish Ministry of Development in 2004. Under the PEIT, 48% of the EUR250 billion expenditure is expected to be invested in the rail category, as the Spanish government plans to develop a High-Performance Network of rail across the country.

Throughout the review period, the Spanish commercial construction market recorded a CAGR of 1.51%, which represented the strongest performance within the Spanish construction industry. With tourist inflows into Spain increasing in 2010 and 2011, construction activities are expected to resume from 2012 onwards when the current stock of unsold space is used. During the forecast period, the commercial construction market is projected to record a CAGR of 0.78%.

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The Indonesian Defense Industry Market Opportunities and Entry Strategies, Analyses and Forecasts to 2016

London, February 06, 2012 – During the review period, Indonesia has allocated insufficient funds to defense. In 2005, defense expenditure was allocated 0.82% of the Indonesian GDP. In 2010, this figure declined to 0.79%, as a consequence of financial constraint and governmental focus on welfare areas, such as education. However, over the forecast period, the government has committed to significantly increasing the defense budget, which could rise to 1.01% of GDP allocated for defense in 2016. Defense expenditure is expected to experience an overall annual growth of 13.15%, due to the Indonesian economy recording a CAGR of 8.3% over the forecast period (reference figure 13 below).

The Indonesian defense market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 13.15% during the forecast period, making it one of the fastest-growing defense markets in the world. The primary stimulator of defense expenditure is the government military modernization program, which was undertaken to compensate for the severe military underfunding during the review period. It is currently estimated that the defense budget is capable of satisfying only 52% of the country’s required military defense expenditure.

Indonesia is frequently affected by natural disasters, in which the army is usually deployed to assist search and rescue operations. In preparation for future natural disasters, government expenditure is expected to increase to purchase transport vehicles and systems which can function in both humanitarian missions and military operations.

In 2011, capital expenditure was allocated 35% of the overall defense budget, while revenue expenditure was allocated 65%. However, due to the government plans to modernize the military through the acquisition of the latest weaponry, capital expenditure is expected to increase and average 40% of the total defense budget, with the remainder allocated for revenue expenditure.

During the review period, the country’s arms exports have registered a decline and the only category to register notable export activity is that of aircraft parts. Indonesia prefers to procure arms from domestic companies, however it relies on imports for technologically advanced weapons which domestic companies are unable to supply. The amount of defense imports has increased during the review period.

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The Future of Construction in Kuwait: Economic Diversification to Improve Growth

During the forecast period (2011–2015), there are planned investments in the construction industry of KWD29.7 billion and, as a result, the Kuwait construction industry is expected to continue growing.

London, February 03, 2011 – Within the Kuwait construction industry, infrastructure construction was the largest market in 2010, with a share of 32.3%. Infrastructure construction was the fastest-growing market over the review period (2006–2010), with a CAGR of 4.72%. This was followed by commercial construction, with a CAGR of 2.94% (reference figure 1 below).

The Kuwait construction industry grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.65% over the review period, which was supported by growth in all the construction markets in the industry. However, the greatest contribution to the industry growth came from the infrastructure construction market, which is the largest market in the Kuwait construction industry.

This growth was assisted by the government’s efforts to diversify the Kuwait economy and reduce its dependence on oil-related industries, which have led to growth in other industry sectors, including construction. In addition, the emergence of a large young population and considerable numbers of expatriates has further encouraged growth in the commercial and institutional construction markets. During the forecast period (2011–2015), there are large planned investments in the construction industry and, as a result, the Kuwait construction industry is expected to continue growing.

The Kuwait economy is dominated by the oil industry and oil-related business enterprises, and is the fourth-largest global oil exporter. The government is, however, planning on diversifying Kuwait’s economy to be less dependent on the oil industry. As a result, the government is encouraging the development of more companies and industries in Kuwait. Due to the government’s efforts at economic diversification, industries such as finance, banking, logistics, transport, industry, trading, telecom and transport began to develop and expand at a rapid rate during the review period, which increased the demand for construction activities, especially in the office buildings category.

The energy and communication infrastructure construction grew at a CAGR of 4.47% during the review period. The growth during the review period was achieved with the support of a government initiative in 2008 to upgrade the country’s electricity grids and make electricity distribution more efficient for air conditioning units during the summer season, in an attempt to eradicate the country’s electricity shortage.

In addition, since Kuwait is the only Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) country without a telecommunications regulatory authority, companies in the private communications sector were able to take advantage of the weak regulatory environment. As a result, the market reached a saturation point and companies were forced to improve their services and quality to capture market share from rival companies. As such, telecommunication firms started investing large amounts of capital in the development of broadband communication networks across the country, resulting in increased construction activity in this sector.

The demand for retail space in Kuwait far outweighs current levels of supply. In 2008 the average retail space per person in Kuwait was below 0.32 meters, compared to an average of 0.66 meters for the Gulf region. Furthermore, the majority of Kuwait nationals are less than 25 years old and one-third of the population are expatriates, who would make use of retail space if it were available. With a large young population, the demand for housing is expected to remain high during the forecast period.

Due to the importance of oil to Kuwait’s economy, the state controls 95% of the land in Kuwait to ensure the freedom of oil exploration. However, this leaves little land for private developers to build on so there is a shortage of residential housing in Kuwait, leading to increased house prices. Property speculation activities have also added to the housing problem, raising house prices to a level that most homebuyers cannot afford. There is also little land available for commercial and retail construction. To address this, the government is expected to release more land and develop housing cities in collaboration with private developers to encourage residential construction over the forecast period.

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